Un nouveau choc pétrolier ?

Le conflit du Moyen-Orient, qui oppose la Palestine à Israël, et celui à venir avec l'Iraq, représente une menace sérieuse pour la croissance et la stabilité des marchés. Pour comprendre l'étendue de cette menace, prenons à rebours les événements qui ont peu de chance de se produire.

En dépit de l'opinion publique, ni l'Iraq ni l'Iran ne mettront réellement en place un embargo pétrolier contre les US. En premier lieu, leur engagement contre les Etats-Unis n'est pas fondé sur le sacrifice préventif des ventes pétrolières qui leur sont essentielles et permettent à leur économie épuisée de se maintenir. Ces deux pays savent que leur refus de vendre du pétrole à l'Amérique permettrait à d'autres pays (la Russie et le Mexique) de prendre le relais. Ainsi, un embargo pétrolier de la part de l'Iran et l'Iraq est condamné à manquer d'efficacité. Tout au plus, ces deux pays perdraient de l'argent.

Même Saddam est suffisamment intelligent pour éviter ce piège, de sorte qu'avec les ayatollahs iraniens, ils se contenteront de poser pour la galerie et d'augmenter les prix du baril. Rien de plus grave que cela. Pour leur public arabe, poser pour la galerie est une preuve presque aussi suffisante de leurs leaderships que des actes réels.

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