Juegos de siglas emergentes

NUEVA YORK – Las cosas que se dan por ciertas sin mayor examen raramente sobreviven a una buena prueba de esfuerzo, y pocas pruebas han sido tan fuertes como lo que la economía global ha debido sufrir en los últimos 24 meses. Somos testigos ahora de una saludable temporada de reevaluaciones que ha dado nuevas luces sobre nociones de tiempos de auge como el valor de los mercados opacos, la condición de intocable del consumidor estadounidense, o la sabiduría de la desregulación.

Sin embargo, una noción vacía que ha escapado relativamente inerme es el supuesto de que los países “BRIC” (Brasil, Rusia, India y China) marcarán cada vez más el tono de la economía mundial en los próximos años. El término BRIC, acuñado en un informe de Golden Sachs de 2003, no es del todo malo: con un 75% de acierto, sale bastante más airoso que varias predicciones económicas de aquellos días.

Y sin embargo, la crisis económica que comenzó en 2008 expuso a uno de estos cuatros países como un impostor. Si se ponen las estadísticas vitales de las economías del BRIC lado a lado, queda en lamentable evidencia el que, igual que en las palabras del viejo juego de Plaza Sésamo: “Una de estas cosas no es como las otras, una de estas cosas no es igual”.

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