BRIC: Wer gehört dazu?

NEW YORK – Gängige Überzeugungen überstehen selten einen guten Stresstest, und wenige Tests waren so hart wie der, den die Weltwirtschaft in den letzten 24 Monaten durchgemacht hat. Eine gesunde Zeit der Neubewertung bricht an, die neues Licht auf die Vorstellungen der Boomzeit wirft, z. B. den Wert undurchsichtiger Märkte, die Unantastbarkeit des amerikanischen Konsumenten oder die Weisheit der Deregulierung.

Doch eine „Blasenweisheit“ ist relativ unversehrt davongekommen: die Annahme, dass die so genannten „BRIC“-Länder – Brasilien, Russland, Indien und China – in den kommenden Jahren immer mehr den Ton in der Wirtschaft angeben werden. Der Begriff BRIC, der in einem Goldman-Sachs-Bericht von 2003 geprägt wurde, liegt nicht vollkommen daneben: Mit einer Korrektheit von 75 % schneidet er wesentlich besser ab als die meisten Wirtschaftsprognosen dieser Tage.

Dennoch entlarvte die Wirtschaftskrise, die 2008 begann, eines der vier Länder als Hochstapler. Legt man die wesentlichen Statistiken der BRIC-Volkswirtschaften nebeneinander, wird wie in dem alten Spiel aus der Sesamstraße peinlich offenbar: „Eines von den Dingen ist anders als die anderen.“

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