Neměnná příslušnost k BRIC?

NEW YORK – Obecně vžité názory pořádnou zátěžovou zkoušku zřídka přežijí a jen nemnoho dosavadních zkoušek představovalo tak silnou zátěž jako ta, jíž globální hospodářství už 24 měsíců prochází. Nadešlo prospěšné období přehodnocování a vrhá nové světlo na představy zformované v konjunkturní době, jako jsou hodnota neprůhledných trhů, nedotknutelné postavení amerického spotřebitele a moudrost deregulace.

Jedna součást představ z dob bubliny, která ovšem prozatím uniká relativně bez újmy, je předpoklad, že ekonomiku budou mít v nadcházejících letech rostoucí měrou pod palcem země „BRIC“ – Brazílie, Rusko, Indie a Čína. Pojem BRIC, ražený ve zprávě Goldman Sachs z roku 2003, není zcela chybný: uspěl na 75 %, takže boduje podstatně lépe než většina aktuálních ekonomických prognóz.

Hospodářská krize propuknuvší v roce 2008 však odhalila, že jeden z této čtveřice je falešný hráč. Položte si statistiky ekonomik BRIC jednu vedle druhé a začne být nepříjemně jasné, že „jedna z těchto věcí je jiná než ostatní,“ jak se zpívá při dětské hře v pořadu Sezamová ulice.

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