Paul Lachine

Otro llamado de atención para Asia

NEW HAVEN – Por segunda vez en tres años, la recuperación económica global está en riesgo. En 2008 el problema fue la crisis de las hipotecas subprime fabricada en los Estados Unidos. Hoy, el problema es la crisis de las deudas soberanas fabricada en Europa. Todos los países de Asia deberían prestar atención a las señales de alarma, ya que la región depende de las exportaciones y no puede darse el lujo de ignorar una repetición de crisis que afectan a sus dos fuentes principales de demanda externa.

De hecho, las consecuencias de ambas crisis serán duraderas. Los consumidores estadounidenses (cuya demanda todavía representa el 71% del PIB de los EE. UU.) aún se debaten en las garras de una recesión de balance, similar a la ocurrida en Japón. En los 15 trimestres transcurridos desde el inicio de 2008, el gasto real de los consumidores aumentó a un anémico ritmo del 0,4% anual en promedio.

Es la primera vez que Estados Unidos, el principal consumidor del mundo, muestra semejante debilidad durante tanto tiempo. Hasta que los hogares estadounidenses progresen por la senda de reducir el endeudamiento excesivo y reconstituir el ahorro personal (un proceso que al paso que vamos puede demorar muchos años más), el lastre de los balances negativos tendrá a la economía de los Estados Unidos avanzando a ritmo de tortuga.

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