Paul Lachine

Erneuter Weckruf für Asien

NEW HAVEN: Zum zweiten Mal in drei Jahren ist die weltwirtschaftliche Erholung in Gefahr. Im Jahre 2008 drehte sich alles um die Subprime-Krise in Amerika; heute ist es die staatliche Schuldenkrise in Europa. In Asien – einer exportorientierten Region, die es sich nicht leisten kann, wiederholte Erschütterungen in seinen beiden größten Quellen der Außennachfrage zu ignorieren – sollten jetzt lautstark die Alarmglocken schrillen.

Tatsächlich werden diese beiden Erschütterungen langanhaltende Auswirkungen haben. In den USA bleiben die amerikanischen Verbraucher (auf die immer noch 71% vom US-BIP entfallen) in einer äußerst schmerzhaften Bilanzrezession nach japanischem Muster gefangen. In den 15 Quartalen seit Anfang 2008 haben die realen Verbraucherausgaben durchschnittlich nur um blutleere 0,4% jährlich zugelegt.

Noch nie hat Amerika, der weltgrößte Verbraucher, so lange geschwächelt. Bis die US-Haushalte größere Fortschritte beim Abbau ihrer exzessiven Schuldenlasten machen und wieder private Ersparnisse aufbauen – ein Prozess, der, wenn es im bisherigen Schneckentempo weitergeht, noch viele Jahre dauern könnte –, wird die unter bilanziellen Beschränkungen leidende US-Wirtschaft durch ein äußert geringes Wachstum beeinträchtigt bleiben.

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