Paul Lachine

亚洲警钟再次响起

纽黑文——全球经济复苏再度告急,这是3年来的第2次。2008年,罪魁祸首是美国次贷危机。这一回则是欧洲主权债务危机。亚洲人应该清晰地听到了警钟——出口导向地区不能对其最大的两个外部需求源的反复震荡无动于衷。

事实上,两次震荡均将造成长期回响。在美国,消费者(消费要占美国GDP的71%)正在日本式的资产负债表衰退中苦苦挣扎。自2008年年初以来的15个季度中,实际消费支出平均年增长率只有0.4%。

作为世界第一大消费国,美国还从未经历过如此长期的疲软。除非美国家庭在削减债务负担、重建个人储蓄方面取得了重大进展——按现在的缓慢节奏看,得许多年才能完成——深受资产负债表约束的美国经济将继续在缓慢增长泥淖中无法自拔。

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