Detener el contagio sirio

WASHINGTON, DC – La guerra civil siria ha llegado a ser un problema horriblemente complicado. Cuando las partes se preparan para reunirse en Ginebra con miras a celebrar la segunda ronda de conversaciones de paz patrocinadas por las Naciones Unidas, el Gobierno ha lanzado despiadados ataques con barriles-bomba en Alepo y otras ciudades; grupos rebeldes islamistas más moderados, incluido el Ejército Sirio Libre, están en guerra abiertamente con las filiales de Al Qaeda y ahora los grupos vinculados con esta última están luchando entre sí.

Entretanto, se están agravando los efectos de la guerra en los países vecinos. Los combates han aumentado la inestabilidad en la región: ciudadanos de los Estados Unidos y europeos están acudiendo en masa a Siria para participar en la yijad y cada vez hay más consenso respecto de que las fronteras de Oriente Medio posteriores a la primera guerra mundial se están deshaciendo. De hecho, la viabilidad de Siria, Estado multiétnico, se está viendo amenazada por múltiples grupos armados apoyados por patrocinadores exteriores –el Irán, Arabia Saudí, Qatar, Rusia, los Estados Unidos, Turquía, Francia y muchos donantes privados–, que tienen, a su vez, fines encontrados.

Vamos a exponer tres formas de simplificar la ecuación y aprovechar al máximo las oportunidades que las partes en la conferencia de paz de Ginebra II puedan acordar algo más que la conveniencia de celebrar algún día una conferencia de Ginebra III.

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