Para frenar a Putin, se debe comenzar por Siria

WASHINGTON, DC – La solución para la crisis en Ucrania radica en parte en Siria. Ya es hora de que el Presidente de los Estados Unidos, Barack Obama, demuestre que puede ordenar el uso ofensivo de la fuerza en circunstancias que no sean las de ataques con aviones teledirigidos u operaciones encubiertas. El resultado cambiará los cálculos estratégicos no sólo en Damasco, sino también en Moscú, por no hablar de Beijing y Tokio.

Muchos sostienen que la marcha atrás de Obama respecto de su amenaza de lanzar ataques con misiles contra Siria el pasado mes de agosto envalentonó al Presidente de Rusia, Vladimir Putin, para anexionarse a Crimea, pero es más probable que Putin actuara por razones internas: para distraer la atención de los rusos de la debilitada economía de sus país y para atenuar la humillación que fue contemplar a manifestantes proeuropeos derribar al Gobierno de Ucrania, al que él respaldaba.

Independientemente de las motivaciones iniciales de Putin, ahora está funcionando en un ambiente en el que está muy seguro de los factores en juego. Está sopesando el valor de un mayor desmembramiento de Ucrania, en el que algunas de las piezas se unieran a Rusia o pasasen a ser Estados vasallos rusos, frente a la gravedad de unas sanciones económicas más duras y más amplias. La utilización de la fuerza por Occidente, aparte de enviar armas a un ejército ucraniano bastante desdichado, no forma parte de la ecuación.

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