Politics

Вызов Европе, брошенный Ангелой Меркель

Jun 5, 2017 Joschka Fischer

БЕРЛИН – Немецкий канцлер Ангела Меркель никогда не считалась оратором, способным вдохновлять. Более того, у неё сложилась репутация человека, который своими спокойными выступлениями убаюкивает аудиторию. Но всё изменилось несколько дней назад. В рамках предвыборной кампании в мюнхенском пригороде Трудеринге Меркель, расположившись в палатке с пивом, выступила с мощной речью, которая попала в заголовки новостей по обе стороны Атлантики.

Поскольку быстро приближается Троицын день, многие стала задаваться вопросом, уж не сам ли Святой Дух вдохновлял Меркель. Но если это не так, подтолкнуть к действию её могли долгие часы, проведённые в компании с президентом США Дональда Трампа на недавних саммитах стран НАТО и «Большой семёрки». И, конечно, она прекрасно помнила о том, что приближаются федеральные выборы в Германии.

Но речь Меркель была не просто предвыборным шагом. Меркель не копировала бывшего канцлера Герхарда Шрёдера, который, выступая в городке Гослар во время предвыборной кампании в январе 2003 года, объявил, что Германия не будет участвовать в войне в Ираке, вне зависимости от того, поддержит её Совет Безопасности ООН или нет. Трудерингская речь Меркель – это не предвыборная агитация.

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Donald Trump’s Flying Circus
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Longer Reads 12

Donald Trump’s Flying Circus

PS editors After US President Donald Trump’s month of scandal, and a week abroad, PS commentators provide insight into the state of America’s global leadership.
The French Election and Europe’s Future
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Politics 17

The French Election and Europe’s Future

Joschka Fischer sees anti-establishment candidates' popularity as a final wake-up call for the EU.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 35 Comments on this article

Orit Adar Jun 12, 2017

Good article. First of all definitely true that not everything Trump says is wrong, and on the issue of European countries taking a free ride he has a point.. Europe should strengthen itself. I'ts high time. But equally true is that America is indispensable and if Trump won't deliver in time of trouble, woe to all of us.
Additionally, as a woman I'd like to add. I get tired of women politicians - Hillary, May and Merkel - being criticized for their oratory skills. Women are usually less good at that, we have had a very short time in the public eye and arena, and over the millenia we learned to get things across and get things done through other means, or we were silenced... That does not detract from our ability as women to lead. These three women are good examples, even if May has some difficulty at the moment. I personally think Hillary is a very good orator and speaker, but men keep putting her down for not having a Trump-like pathos, or Obama's unusual talent. She would have been a great president and the sexism that undermined her will haunt us all for a long time. Let's at least hope for Merkel' re-election to keep stabilizing Europe.
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Barry Rosenfeld Jun 11, 2017

"Germany will have to make political concessions." Really? What could France or any other EU member country demand from Germany? The end of "austerity?" A fiscal transfer union? Only a united front against Germany will create the conditions for reform and renewal.

And what will Frau Fuhrer demand in return? Stayed tuned.
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Cary Fraser Jun 11, 2017

Well said!
Chancellor Merkel was a witness to the disintegration of the East-bloc and that experience will provide context for her approach to the most significant shift in international politics since the end of the Cold War. She understood very early that Trump's election meant far-reaching change and has moved adroitly to position Germany and the EU to confront that shift. The EU's role in the international system will become that of an agenda-setter to which other major players will respond.
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David Neunuebel Jun 11, 2017

First I think it would be a good thing for the end of US "hegemony." We've screwed up so much in its name - the Middle East particularly. But Fischer oddly calls the French election a "close call' when Marcon beat LePen by an astondingly large margin. Where's the "close call" in that, she got slammed?
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Peter Lintner Jun 7, 2017

Of course, the europhiles, like the author, never mention how to fix the eurozone, because they know VERY WELL that eurozone is unfixable, unworkable, unsustainable, frankenstein creation.

There are only two options of european INTEGRATION. Either break up eurozone in orderly fashion with as little damage as possible, or wait in agony for disorderly catastrophic collapse. Yes, we know very well what europhiles choose, they choose the later as they abhore common sense.

Thanks you very much Joschka Fischer for saying noting at all, again. Well done. Do you have a trillion or two to spare, maybe we could fix the eurozone ...
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Allan Bleiken Jun 6, 2017

EUROPE IS A BIG BY NOW

The fact is that the EU has a bigger population and a larger GDP than the United States. It has ridden on the coattails of America for nearly seven decades. And while that might have been necessary right after World War Two, it is no longer justifiable.

Good for Merkel.
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Henk Crop Jun 6, 2017

Leadership is not about penny-pinching Germany having to make political concessions in the relationship with France.
The question is how to manage a country in the EU ? There are differences but, say the Northern approach ( to be more specific, the 9 countries in the top 20 ranking of the Global Competitive List ) or the Southern approach.
How will their cooperation be in the future ? Within the Eurozone and outside ?
Also the German - French management role in the EU should be opened up for debate ( see my writing below ).
This is relevant as mr. Macron, and others, have many ideas about smoothly transferring much money from the North to the South, by means of Eurobonds, Debtsharing, Low interest rates and other financial instruments.
Are the people in the Netherlands, Germany, Sweden, Finland, Norway, Denmark, Belgium, Austria, Luxemburg in the nearby future going to hear from the EU that much of their pension money is gone and has been smoothly transferred to the South ?
For now I hope that Germany will continue its penny-pinching. What sounds to me as responsible financial management.
- Steve Hurst Jun 6, 2017
  
  Henk
  
  You make me laugh Henk - there is nothing in common between Germany and Greece so why expect the arrangement to work. The only thing holding it all together is debt. If the debt ever is removed the whole thing would fall apart. The EU - divided we stand, united we fall : )
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Gerry H Jun 6, 2017

"If the US sacrifices it's place at the top of the international order...we will have a power vacuum, marked by chaos". But we already have a power vacuum, marked by chaos, as a result of the catastrophic consequences of US and UK foreign and military policy and leadership over the last couple of decades. The Anglo-Saxon coalition is driving the entire world into ever more dangerous waters. This destabilisation was never meant to stop at Iraq or Yemen but continue with Syria and Iran, break up the entire region to take control and prevent competition. And then what, take on China, with N Korea as a trigger? Colonise Africa, subjugate Russia? Their ambition knows no end. The rise of Trump is the one golden opportunity for the Europeans to recognise the ugly truth and detach from a partnership that won't lead to a victory of any sort but to downfall, as consequence, in a violent blowback against the West, by the anger and hatred of a whole generation whose countries have been levelled and destroyed by endless blanket bombing. If you think they won't blame you, think again because you're dreaming.
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Morten Lynge Jun 6, 2017

"“The times when we could completely rely on others are, to an extent, over,” Merkel said"
Given that her country is one of the ones you can't rely on (they're not spending on defence as promised), she is entirely right...
- M M Jun 6, 2017
  
  Morten, this may be hard to explain to an addict in "Free Riding", especially after decades of " Free Riding"!
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Curtis Carpenter Jun 6, 2017

I think Chancellor Merkel is simply grasping in full the historic opportunity that the U.S. and U.K.have presented to continental Europe. Together and inadvertently perhaps, these two U's have created the greatest geopolitical vacuum in a century.

And nature, of course,l abhors even a political vacuum -- so Merkel also understands that it won't last long. The EU has at most a decade to take full advantage of the gift that's fallen unexpectedly into its lap -- and perhaps much less time than that.

The tragedy in this is that poor Britain, at a moment of the greatest opportunity the EU has enjoyed in decades, finds itself on the outside looking in, and tethered, like it or not, to Donald Trump's America.

One hopes that Francis Fukuyama is paying attention -- what may be a whole new chapter in history is unfolding before our eyes while my own United States teeters on the brink of disaster and the U.K. curses its bad timing and bad luck.
- jagjeet sinha Jun 6, 2017
  
  Spurned by Trump and wary of Transfer Union with ClubMed - Berlin was hosting Chinese n Indian Premiers last week.
  Merkel grew up in East Germany and perhaps is comforted by its East - The Big Bear bridging Berlin n Beijing.
  Youth always achieve the Impossible - Young Macron and Young Trudeau perhaps can bridge The Atlantic.
  Two French Heads of State, speaking in English, with both Trump and May - can bring hope back.
  JS
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- Curtis Carpenter Jun 6, 2017
  
  Meanwhile, jagjeet sinha, the Chinese watch developments, calmly plan their next move, and time marches on.
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- jagjeet sinha Jun 6, 2017
  
  @Curtis
  Chivalrous of Americans to be apologetic about the arrogance of The Anglosphere.
  But in 1971 - The DeGaulle demolition of the Dollar Standard - it was President Nixon who understood.
  PetroDollars and The Pacific alternative - were born due the Twin Genius of Nixon and Kissinger.
  But, in the end - Europe did create The Euro, albeit NOT THE PETROEURO that DeGaulle and Chirac wanted.
  Now in 2017 - instead of DeGaulle - The Anglosphere is confronted with The German Commonwealth of Chancellor Merkel.
  As in 1971 - Europe will create the Defense Equivalent of The Euro - it is President Trump in The Situation Room.
  The Twin Genius needed this time is Donald Trump and Theresa May - to secure the Right Price for incessant European obduracy.
  Let's hope they don't end up gifting THE PUTINEURO - Francis Fukuyama May then be writing the epitaph instead of another chapter !!
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j. von Hettlingen Jun 5, 2017

Joschka Fischer says Angela Merkel's straightforward speech last week that Europe must strengthen itself and take matters into its own hands is unsurprising. After all she has met Donald Trump twice and got to know how inconsistent and untrustworthy he is. Merkel is not the only one to distrust him. America's overseas allies, like Japan and South Korea experience at first hand that they can no longer expect Trump to uphold the decades long commitment and cooperation. Even the Saudis and Israelis, on whom he heaped praise during his visit to the Middle East can't feel they can rely on him.
Trump's "America First" agenda may have impressed as a campaign pledge, five months into his presidency, he has accomplished little. Moreover Trump and those close to him are under FBI investigations that hang like a Sword of Damocles over his political future. Whenever he finds an easy way to divert attention, he grabs the opportunity, like picking a fight with America's European allies and others.
The author is right about Merkel’s speech in Trudering near Munich being not merely "electioneering." Five years ago such words would not have made sense. But since Trump embarked on his campaign trail to the November election, his anti-EU and Nato blusters, bullying and zero-sum game mindset have offended many Europeans. Nevertheless Merkel's message marks a significant change in the Transatlantic relationship, to which Trump is indifferent.
Despite Merkel's matter-of-fact statement, the author doesn't believe that , "Germany is turning away from the transatlantic alliance, pursuing a strategic realignment, or entering a new era of insecurity." Unlike Trump who fails to acknowledge the existence of global responsibility and effort to secure the common good, Merkel knows that we live in an interdependent world, in which security and prospertiy are under constant threat. Neither Europe nor America can deal with today's challenges on their own as they could together.
As pragmatic as Merkel is, she won't "turn away from transatlanticism." She fully "knows that the US is indispensable to Europe’s security. But she also knows that Trump’s presidency has cast doubt on both the American security guarantee and the shared values that, until now, firmly linked the two sides." Thanks to decades old ties the Transatlantic relationship will survive Trump's stint in office, the length of which is unsure, given the political turmoil in the White House.
According to the author, "a careful analysis of Merkel’s words shows that she was not questioning the future of the transatlantic alliance. Rather, she was calling for a stronger Europe." Indeed, she has found in France's Emmanuel Macron a worthy partner to deepen the Franco-German alliance that has been crucial for the European project. "Both leaders want to stabilize the eurozone, restore economic growth, and strengthen Europe’s security with a joint border force and a new refugee policy." Much depends on the effectiveness of their partnership, as both sides are determined to establish the kind of personal understanding needed to make cooperation work.
The author suggests, Germany needs to mull over its "current role as the eurozone’s penny-pinching know-it-all," because it is "at odds with the new approach that it must take. To demonstrate real leadership within the French-German partnership, Germany will have to make political concessions." Finally, Trump isn't quite wrong about Germany and Europe - they need "to do far more to ensure /their/ own security, and to reinforce the transatlantic bridge that sustains European peace and prosperity."
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M M Jun 5, 2017

Can the author please define the EU identity and the EU Borders and name the person (s) referred to in his concluding sentence about the "bete noire" authoritarian? Merkel is just rhetoric, she got the "Trump" syndrome after her recent visit to W DC, whoever believes a word she says (other than the migrants) needs to have a reality check! These Hollywood Acts, being Trump latest pilgrimages and Merkel latest visit by the French, Indian and Chinese Leaders, do an excellent TV serial.
- Steve Hurst Jun 5, 2017
  
  MM
  The EU identity is multi-personality disorder, manifest as err... disorder
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Henk Crop Jun 5, 2017

Two events have taken place that cannot be seen as anything else than bad for the EU.
The Brexit and the US taking distance from Europe.
It is sad that it must be concluded that both events have been enhanced by the EU elite itself, by :
- denying the British people the right to retain their identity, culture and life style
- shamefully failing to fulfill the 2 % NATO obligations

But now the Europeans must take their fate in their own hands, according to Mrs Merkel
That is always good for any country or organization. Was it not that Europe has not a spotless trackrecord in doing that well.
Therefore I have some issues that I think require attention:
- The relation between the UK, the US and the EU has be improved, which is the interest of all.
The 2 % has to be paid asap. The UK has to get the control it wants over its borders.
- The traditional German-French axis in EU leadership has to be extended by 4 members from the smaller countries. A true EU team.
Together Germany and France comprise only 34 % of the EU population, a minority. So it will improve democracy in the EU.
With UK out an unstable relation has now developed. A team will lead to better decision making.
- North and South / East difference. There are great differences between EU countries in: econonomic development, political structure, culture. Some of these differences are hundreds of years old and were caused by history. In France, Italy, Spain the Catholic church, in the Balkans the Ottoman Empire. In the North the Protestants.
The consequences today are that on the Global Competitive Index only 9 EU members out of 27 members are ranked in the Top 20.
As a result the EU develops ever more in a money Transfer Union. This requires a frank discussion with all countries involved. This cannot made to happen by shady political deals or incomprehensable financials instruments, often prepared by unelected unofficials.
Also these old cultural differnces cannot simply be rubbed out.
- Integration of the EU has be focussed on fewer and better regulations. Based on respect for the sovereingty of the EU countries.
The "ever closer union" concept has be removed from the table. Instead of just issueing binding regulations the EU Commission must advise and enhance cooperation among countries.
- Steve Hurst Jun 5, 2017
  
  Henk
  
  'The consequences today are that on the Global Competitive Index only 9 EU members out of 27 members are ranked in the Top 20.' The outcome from ever closer union can only be to averaging reducing EU competitiveness. In the same way mass immigration of unskilled labour that can on average only earn very low wages at best can only reduce per capita income. But these things are not talked about by lobbyists
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stephan Edwards Jun 5, 2017

Does he mean shared values like let's shove the southern arc ,Greece Italy spain's faces in the mud and then put a boot to their neck to keep them there via debt and economic peonage?
- stephan Edwards Jun 6, 2017
  
  None of the money "loaned" by the governments went anywhere near The southern countries all they did was transfer the debts from private banks to the taxpayers. Private profits public losses? The banks should have taken the losses period not the taxpayers. Second how long can that level of unemployment continue with destabilizing the losers in this little dance? Permanent austerity combined with a unending flow of unsustainable refugees is a prescription for insurgency which will come. Between being forced to sell everything that isn't nailed down to the big contributors to the well connected northern interests and being stuck with all those refugees they are supposed to support when they can't even help their own people??? Why exactly should the south take this forever??? If this is honest EU democracy I'll take fascism.
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- Henk Crop Jun 6, 2017
  
  Stephan. I do not understand what you are talking about. Some Southern countries have spent more money than they had income.
  To meet ends meet they had to loan money and thus runned up debt. As other financial sources did not want to loan money to these countries, ( at a reasonable interest), the EU has offered to help them. As Germany was the biggest financial source, mrs. Merkel was much involved, but the money came from many countries. Loans have to be paid back, which may be painful, but is normal practice.
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jagjeet sinha Jun 5, 2017

FREEDOM FOR FREELOADERS
Germany and France have spent 60 years in perfecting the European Union.
Most of that period, Merkel grew up in the arms of The Big Bear.
Threatened by the Uncertainty of The Anglosphere and The Transfer Union with ClubMed - Prussian instincts comfortable with its East.
Germany and France together never happy with The Anglosphere - despite the Peace n Prosperity of Seven Decades.
Should they be signalling departure from NATO - perhaps time they played The Grandmaster with Russia, China and The Gulf directly.
The Anglosphere cannot persist in underwriting their Security - given their desire for Independence Day.
Should they discover subsequently any need for The North Atlantic Security and Economics Partnerships - no freeloaders anymore.
That should also free up The Anglosphere to take initiatives without the embrace of Europe.
The Anglosphere can finally classify Germany and France alongside Russia and China.
Instead of underwriting their Economics and Security - both must have price tags.
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Prashant Kotak Jun 5, 2017

Sounds to me as though she's testing the waters, to see if an EU Army is a goer.
- Steve Hurst Jun 5, 2017
  
  Parshant
  
  One thing is definite and that is things are going to get more expensive for the EU. Schengen is estimated to save 2% of GDP on logistics. EU bungs to N Africa to stop migrants. A proper border force. Debt write off for GR. A full 2% of GDP to NATO. A proper functioning policeor security task force to deal with terrorists rather than just making lists and saying -
  Oh yeah we knew him, after there has been a killing. Not to mention a 15% drop in subscriptions to the EU from Brexit. To set up a EU army Germany has to set up a German Army and pay for it. Thats what Merkel is peddling. Its all a softening up process for the German citizens
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- Prashant Kotak Jun 5, 2017
  
  Steve, I genuinely believe Germany is too frightened of it's own history to want to go there.
  However, even though Merkel and Macron might want a joint Army, I wonder how much appetite there is in the German population to fork out still more, this time to defend the East and South.
  I can just imagine in my parallel reality - Germany and France leaving NATO in a fit of pique at Trump, and then replicating the money squabbles of NATO, but this time with Germany berating the rest of the EU for not contributing enough, all the while the Bear in the East licking it's lips - now that would be funny, if lethal.
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- Steve Hurst Jun 5, 2017
  
  Prashant
  
  Dont you mean a German Army
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Steve Hurst Jun 5, 2017

Perhaps Merkel was advising Germany that it could no longer avoid the 2% of GDP defense expenditure which is supposed to be undertaken by NATO members, an expenditure which Germany has continually avoided
- M M Jun 5, 2017
  
  Steve, of course it can, all they need to do is open the tap a bit more and channel the cost of the migrants to other EU member states, easy, it has already been done and tested!
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- Steve Hurst Jun 5, 2017
  
  Hi John
  
  There is another problem looking for Germany which is ageing demographics which cannot be solved with the current migration
  
  Regards
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- John Brian Shannon Jun 5, 2017
  
  Hi Steve,
  
  Yes, that is fair comment. Germany has been lagging, as have other European nations, and Canada too, when it comes to paying the agreed 2% of GDP towards defense spending for NATO partners.
  
  President Trump is right to bring it up with those leaders, of course.
  
  As always, very best regards, JBS
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John Brian Shannon Jun 5, 2017

Hi Joschka,

ONLY BECAUSE unfettered globalization isn't working for the bottom-two quintiles, have two distinct sides been forming in developed nations.

On one side, we have the leftist elites who prefer the status quo, and on the other, we have the people for whom globalization isn't working.

If only the leftist elites pretended to care about the bottom-two quintiles, we wouldn't even be talking about a president Trump, a UK Brexit, a near-miss for France (which may not miss, next election, if the undemocrats in Brussels aren't reined-in) and other nation-states in Europe looking askance at the EU.

It's not a realignment of the world order as some commentators have alluded to, it's an economic revolt against uncaring elites, on both sides of the Atlantic.

Instead of feeling abandoned by the U.S and the UK, Angela Merkel should rejoice (!) and pick up the torch to advance the cause of modern liberalism in the world -- who better, and who more worthy to carry that particular torch than Angela Merkel -- one of the most successful politicians in modern history, and whose policies, everything from Energiewende to her brilliant economic policies (just look at that economy and that trade surplus!) and her insightful social policies.

Yes, she allowed too many immigrants over too short a timeframe, more than Germany could realistically absorb, and yes, in the rush of globalization she forgot about the bottom-two quintiles.

But those things are utterly fixable!

1. Slow down the rate of immigration to Germany.
2. Spend much more time figuring out how to fix only what is broken with globalization.

Given her impressive talents, she could have both fixed by 2018.

And then get on to being the global spokesperson for whatever liberalism remains in the world. It's not the time to be timid.

"If not us, who? If now now, when?" -- JFK

For if Frau Merkel won't be the global spokesperson for liberal values, who will?

If Angels Merkel sees a glass half-full, I respectfully suggest that if she is looking at the situation properly, she will see a tall, elegant glass, overflowing with champagne!

Grab the torch, Angela! It's yours for the taking!

It's as easy as 1 + 2. (See above)

As always, great to read your essays here at ProSyn, Joschka!

Related Article: https://johnbrianshannon.com/2017/05/31/western-economies-double-gdp/
- John Brian Shannon Jun 6, 2017
  
  Hi Jan,
  
  I agree all your points. And you make your points well.
  
  To answer your question: "Will someone, [Angela Merkel] who represents a country which has benefited tremendously from an existing system, undertake the necessary reforms which might jeopardize its current position?"
  
  It's a great question.
  
  If Angela Merkel plays it safe and doesn't address the necessary changes, I expect that the entire EU will implode and cease to be a political structure within 10-years.
  
  Maybe that's the plan? Ride the vehicle into the ground, then jump off and look for another passing vehicle to jump aboard?
  
  I hope not. For that would be a shame and a waste.
  
  The EU is unique in the world and has accomplished much. Yes, there is the matter of the unelected, undemocrats in Brussels, and the liberal elites who don't give a damn about the bottom-two quintiles -- but those are utterly fixable problems.
  
  Exactly as you say, what Angela Merkel does / or doesn't do now and in the near future, will determine what is written about her in the history books -- either she will be seen as a capable manager who 'lucked-out' and 'presided' over Germany during a time of global economic growth -- or she will grab the bull by the horns and steer Germany and the EU towards a much better and more inclusive future for all EU nations and their citizens.
  
  Not all great managers are visionaries and not all visionaries are great managers, that's a true statement.
  
  But it seems to me that great visionaries are one-in-a-billion, while great managers are one-in-a-million.
  
  I hope it's still in Angela Merkel and her base to become exceptional, instead of extremely competent managers.
  
  Liberals are crying out for a leader, one that can stand toe-to-toe with the giants of modern conservatism like Donald Trump, and give as good as they get.
  
  As a centrist, I see value in arguments put forward by both sides. I wouldn't want a world without an equally strong right and left -- for me, it's all about balance.
  
  My final thought and answer to your question is, if Angela doesn't grab the torch, defend liberalism, and make the changes required to improve the EU political structure and to improve the lot of the bottom-two quintiles (and not just in Germany, indeed, not just in the EU, but globally) we can all kiss liberalism goodbye for at least one generation.
  
  Yes, I do believe the stakes are that high.
  
  Best regards, JBS
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- Jan Czaja Jun 5, 2017
  
  JBS,
  What you're proposing will require an innovative leadership. As far as I'm concerned, Mrs. Merkel hasn't shown any since assuming office in 2005. Sure she's been an excellent care-taker who through great consensus building skills has captained Germany into prosperity and increased European dominance. But again, these are traits of a greater manager, rather than a visionary.
  
  What is required right now is probably the greatest overhaul in Western political and economic though since 1945. Will someone, who represents a country which has benefited tremendously from an existing system, undertake the necessary reforms which might jeopardize its current position? I just don't see it.
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