Un enfoque sistémico sobre la estabilidad financiera

HONG KONG – El mes próximo, políticos, líderes empresariales, académicos y representantes de la sociedad civil se reunirán en Kiel, Alemania, para el Simposio Económico Mundial (GES), donde intentarán desarrollar soluciones concretas a los problemas económicos más acuciantes de la actualidad. Una condición fundamental para formular propuestas efectivas será contar con una comprensión global de los factores que determinan (y socavan) la estabilidad financiera mundial.

En la cumbre del año pasado, el diálogo sobre el futuro de la banca central, que enfrentó las metas de inflación a la estabilidad financiera, generó tres soluciones: los bancos centrales deben adoptar un enfoque anticíclico, se debe crear una autoridad monetaria mundial para promover la cooperación multilateral entre los bancos centrales y la estabilidad de los precios debe seguir siendo el objetivo principal de los bancos centrales. Si bien estas soluciones tienen mérito, no bastan para abordar con eficacia las complejas y vastas insuficiencias que llevaron a la crisis financiera mundial de 2007-2009.

La crisis fue un fallo sistémico global en el que se produjeron colapsos en casi todos los niveles, desde la teoría macroeconómica a los microincentivos a instituciones. La profesión de la economía (y las instituciones dentro de la arquitectura financiera existente, incluidas las entidades reguladoras) se había especializado demasiado, adquiriendo rasgos de rigidez y egoísmo. Como resultado, ya no era capaz de dar cuenta de la evolución de los sistemas económicos, con su constante adaptación de las normas, las herramientas y los comportamientos.

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