金融稳定的系统性方针

香港—下个月,决策者、商界领袖、学者和公民社会代表将在德国基尔的全球经济座谈会(Global Economic Symposium,GES)上会面,尝试为当今最紧迫的经济问题寻找切实的解决方案。他们能否拿出有效的方案取决于能否全面认识构成(和破坏)全球金融稳定的基础的因素。

在去年的峰会中,关于中央银行的未来的对话认为通胀目标不利于金融稳定,并提出了三个解决方案:中央银行应该采取反周期的政策方针;应该成立世界性的货币当局以促进央行的多边合作;中央银行必须继续把价格稳定作为首要目标。尽管这些解决方案不乏可取之处,但都不足以有效纠正导致2007—2009年全球金融危机的复杂而影响深远的失灵。

危机凸显出全面的系统性失灵,从宏观经济理论到微观层面的机构激励的各个层面几乎都出现了崩溃。经济学界(以及现有金融体系中的机构,包括监管机构)变得过度专业化、僵化和自利化,因此无法解释经济制度的演化及其规则、工具和行为的持续调整。

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