La future guerre de classe

HONG KONG – Le stratège militaire allemand du dix-huitième siècle Carl von Clausewitz définissait la guerre comme la poursuite de la politique par des moyens différents, et tout comme le stratège chinois Sun Tzu, il estimait qu’assurer la paix signifiait de se préparer à de violents conflits. A l’heure où s’intensifie le tumulte dans le monde – renaissance de la lutte armée en Ukraine, chaos perpétuel au Moyen-Orient, et tensions grandissantes en Asie de l’est – une telle vision ne saurait être plus pertinente.

Les guerres se mènent traditionnellement pour des territoires. Mais la définition du territoire a évolué pour incorporer cinq domaines : le sol, l’air, la mer, l’espace, et plus récemment le cyberespace. Ces dimensions de la « guerre de classe » définissent les menaces auxquelles le monde est aujourd’hui confronté. Les déclencheurs, les objectifs, et les lignes de batailles spécifiques de tels conflits sont principalement déterminés, même si à des degrés différents, par cinq facteurs : la foi, le clan, la culture, le climat et la monnaie. Ces facteurs nourrissent effectivement déjà bien des conflits partout dans le monde.

La Religion, ou la foi, est historiquement l’un des motifs récurrents de guerre, et le vingt-et-unième siècle n’y fait pas exception. Si l’on considère la prolifération des groupes djihadistes, comme l’Etat Islamique, qui poursuit sa campagne d’appropriation des territoires en Iraq et en Syrie, et Boko Haram, compromis dans une campagne brutale d’enlèvements, de violences armées et d’assassinats au Niger. Des clashs violents ont aussi opposé Bouddhistes et Musulmans au Myanmar et dans le sud de la Thaïlande, et entre Islamistes et Catholiques aux Philippines.

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