为谁而战?

香港—十八世纪德国军事战略家克劳塞维茨将战争定义为:政治以不同手段的延续。与中国古代战略家孙子一样,他认为确保和平意味着为暴力冲突做好了准备。随着世界变得日益动荡,如乌克兰军事冲突复燃、中东持续混乱以及东亚紧张局势的升级等局势所证实,对战争的这一深刻理解变得非常重要。

传统上,战争围绕领土进行。但领土的定义包括五个维度:陆地、天空、海洋、空间以及最新出现的网络。这种多位一体的战争形式反映了当今世界所面临的威胁。但最重要的问题是:为谁而战?战争的具体触发因素、目标和冲突的战线其实主要将由五个因素决定:信仰、种族、文化、气候和货币。事实上,这些因素正在主导全球性的冲突。

首先,信仰及宗教是历史上最常见的战争动机之一,二十一世纪也不例外。以圣战组织的兴盛为例,包括仍在蚕食伊拉克和叙利亚领土的伊斯兰国和在尼日利亚实施野蛮绑架、轰炸和谋杀的博科圣地(Boko Haram)组织。还有缅甸和泰国南部佛教徒和穆斯林的暴力冲突,以及菲律宾伊斯兰教徒和天主教徒的暴力冲突。

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