中国需要通过利率并轨来化解信贷繁荣风险

香港—中国的信贷正在以危险的速度增加,占GDP之比从2008年的125%上升到2012年的215%。地方政府债务自2009年以来飙升了70%,到去年6月已高达近3万亿美元。这引起了对中国金融系统风险状况的严重担忧。

中国信贷的快速增长反映了政府对投资管控的放松及其银行官方的超低利率。自2000年以来,中国的一年期定期存款利率一直保持在2%—4%区间,与消费物价通胀率持平。银行官方的大部分信贷都流向了国有企业、城市房产按揭和政府项目,而其基准贷款利率却稳定在5.5%—7%的低水平。

众所周知,宽松的信贷、较低的官方利率和高需求,共同导致了中国一些城市的房地产价格在过去十年里大涨300%—500%。由于80%的城市家庭拥有自己的住房,房间上涨带来了广泛的财富分配。少数已经拥有房产的群体拥有获得廉价信贷的特权,但是劳动力市场新晋大军和中小企业仍难以获得信贷及合适的信贷利率。

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