中国的大都会与鬼城

香港—许多观察家喜欢将无人居住的现代“鬼城”作为中国经济即将崩溃的征兆。这些“鬼城”常常由有风险性的地方政府融资平台提供资金。但这一观点低估了类似的挑战在发展道路上的必然性,或者更确切的说是必要性。

2012年,风险资本家威廉·詹韦(William Janeway )指出,经济发展是一个包括国家、创新型私人企业家和金融资本主义的三方博弈,它必然会产生超调,从而为下一波发明和产出增长创造条件。美国在十九世纪中叶铁路、矿产和工业化投资兴起后也出现了鬼城。但美国并没有因此而遭遇超越国界的系统性危机。

没有大规模基础设施投资,特别是交通投资,就不可能产生让美国跻身世界工业强国的生产率的提升。尽管这一过程包括了巨大的创新性破坏,但经济的高速增长抵消了产能过剩造成的损失。

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