La dualité économique chinoise

HONG KONG – L'économie de la Chine est à nouveau confrontée au spectre d'un atterrissage brutal. Des bulles de propriété, une augmentation de la dette du gouvernement local et certaines activités imprévisibles du système bancaire parallèle génèrent des risques financiers considérables, ce qui complique les efforts du gouvernement pour lutter contre la hausse du prix de la main-d'œuvre, le crédit excessif, la pollution écrasante, une corruption endémique, un système fiscal peu développé et l'augmentation de la concurrence internationale. Et d'autres risques apparaissent quasiment à chaque avancée.

Toute stratégie visant à atténuer la menace d'un ralentissement brutal doit tenir compte de la double nature de l'économie de la Chine. D'une part, les villes chinoises sont de plus en plus modernes et engagées à l'échelle mondiale. En effet les 17 villes les plus dynamiques de la Chine, qui représentent 11% de la population et près de 30% du PIB, ont déjà atteint le statut de pays à revenu élevé, selon les critères de la Banque mondiale et la Chine devrait dépasser les Etats-Unis comme premier marché d'e-commerce du monde.

D'autre part, la moitié de la population de la Chine reste rurale et tire une part importante de ses revenus de l'activité agricole. Selon MasterCard, 25% des paiements des consommateurs sont réalisés en espèces, ce qui implique que l'économie du secteur non structuré de la Chine reste beaucoup plus robuste qu'on ne le croit.

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