中国的次贷风险

香港—一个广为接受的观点是,最近的全球金融危机实际上是一场资产负债表危机。美国长时间的负利率助长了不可持续的资产购买融资热潮,而高风险按揭破坏了美国的国家资产负债表。当关键的银行间市场流动性枯竭时,脆弱性就暴露无遗,并且产生了灾难性后果。

如今,中国金融机构资产负债表快速扩张——从2007年到2011年共增长92%,而名义GDP增长为78%——正在让越来越多的人预测中国很快就会经历其自身的次贷危机。这样的预测有合理性吗?

评估中国经济脆弱性的第一步是区分偿债能力危机和流动性危机。偿债能力危机发生在企业没有足够资本抵御资产价格崩盘时。20世纪90年代亚洲金融危机期间,一些国家经历了外汇危机,贬值和高利率使银行和企业资本流失殆尽,因为它们缺少足够的储备偿还外汇债务。在1989年日本资产价格危机中(2008年的美国也是如此),银行资本重组和央行流动性支持重塑了市场的信心。

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