مخاطر الرهن العقاري

هونغ كونغ- ان من المتعارف عليه الان على نطاق واسع ان الازمه الماليه العالميه الاخيرة كانت في واقع الامر ازمه في الميزانيه العموميه فالفترات الطويله من اسعار الفائده السلبيه قد سهلت التمويل الذي لا يمكن استدامته من اجل شراء الاصول مع وجود رهونات عقاريه ذات مخاطر عاليه تضعف الميزانيات العمومية الوطنية وعندما تجف منابع السيوله في الاسواق بين البنوك فإن اوجه الضعف تنكشف مع حدوث عواقب مدمره .

ان التوسع السريع في الميزانيات العموميه للمؤسسات الماليه الصينية - والتي زادت بمقدار 92% من 2007 الى 2011 بالاضافة الى نمو اسمي في الناتج المحلي الاجمالي بمقدار 78%- يشعل التوقعات بإن البلاد سوف تشهد قريبا انهيار في الرهن العقاري فهل هناك أية مصداقية لتلك التوقعات ؟

ان الخطوة الاولى في تقييم الضعف المالي هو التمييز بين ازمة الملاءه الماليه والتي يمكن ان تحدث عندما تفتقد الشركات لرأس المال الكافي لتحمل انهيار اسعار الاصول وبين ازمة السيوله فخلال الازمه الماليه الاسيويه في التسعينات عانت بعض البلدان من ازمات تتعلق بالعملات الاجنبيه حيث ان انخفاض قيمة العملة واسعار الفائده الحقيقية العاليه ادت الى تناقص رؤوس اموال البنوك والمؤسسات بسبب نقص الاحتياطات الكافية من اجل سداد الديون بالعملات الاجنبيه وفي حالات انهيار اسعار الاصول في اليابان سنة 1989 وفي الولايات المتحدة سنة 2008 فإن اعادة رسملة البنك ودعم السيوله المتوفره في البنك المركزي استعادت ثقة الاسواق.

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