长期停滞南进

圣地亚哥—商品价格重回人间,美联储也将逐渐退出量化宽松,这推高了美国的利率,拉美经济体面临可持续增长的挑战。2013年,拉美地区主要经济体增长纷纷减速,预计2014年亦将如此。

如今,显而易见的是,2008—2009年全球经济危机之后几年中拉美的快速增长并非来自革命性的政策变化,而是来自极为有利的外部环境。只要大豆、小麦、铜、石油和其他原材料价格居高不下,巴西、智利和秘鲁等商品富裕国就能得到很大的提振;甚至经济政策十分糟糕的阿根廷增长也十分迅速。

但如今,“长期停滞”——自从前美国财政部张拉里·萨默斯(Larry Summers)在去年11月指出美国(或许也包括其他发达经济体)进入了长期的GDP增长萎靡阶段以来,这个新兴概念便成为美国政策争论中的热词——可能将来到拉丁美洲。

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