Nueva vida a la economía ucraniana

WASHINGTON, DC – De un día para el otro se ha producido en Ucrania un gran avance democrático. La sangrienta represión alentada por el ex presidente Víktor Yanukóvich llevó a muchos de sus parlamentarios a pasarse a la oposición, con lo que se formó una gran mayoría. El nuevo gobierno que surja ahora deberá consolidar su autoridad actuando con rapidez y decisión (también necesitará mucho apoyo internacional) para sanear una economía en crisis.

Tres grandes problemas económicos aquejan a Ucrania. En primer lugar, su balanza de pagos es insostenible. El año pasado el déficit de cuenta corriente fue un 8,3% del PIB según estimaciones; las reservas de divisas se están agotando y ya sólo cubren poco más de dos meses de importaciones. En segundo lugar, también es insostenible el estado de las finanzas públicas: el déficit fiscal roza el 8% del PIB y los intereses de la deuda pública se dispararon. En tercer lugar, entre mediados de 2012 y 2013, Ucrania tuvo cinco trimestres de recesión.

Estos problemas son un reflejo de la política económica de Yanukóvich, cuyo único objetivo era permitirles acumular riquezas a él, a sus familiares y a algunos pocos secuaces. Durante los últimos cuatro años, los gobernantes ucranianos se dieron a un grado de malversación de fondos públicos nunca antes visto; se estima que la familia de Yanukóvich acumuló un patrimonio de doce mil millones de dólares. De modo que el nuevo gobierno también necesitará ayuda internacional para recuperar al menos una parte del botín.

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