Chavez: Eine Analyse

Wirtschaftsanalysen besitzen anscheinend keine Geltung für die beinahe acht Jahre währende Amtszeit von Hugo Chavez in Venezuela und er wird bestrebt sein, sie in den Präsidentschaftswahlen nächsten Monat zu verlängern. Tatsächlich bestätigt jede wirtschaftliche Untersuchung Venezuelas unter Chavez Edgar R. Fiedlers Bonmot, dass man “fünf Antworten bekommt, wenn man fünf Wirtschaftswissenschaftlern eine Frage stellt...oder sechs, wenn einer von ihnen in Harvard studiert hat.”

Manche sehen in Chavez einen innovativen Staatsmann, der einen beinahe magischen Moment genutzt hat – die unerwarteten Einnahmen, die Venezuela durch die heutzutage Schwindel erregend hohen Ölpreise beschert wurden –, um die Spielregeln in diesem Land zu ändern. Einige Schlüsselindikatoren scheinen dies zu belegen. Auslandsinvestitionen sind unlängst von 1,5 Milliarden Dollar (2004) auf 2,5 Milliarden Dollar (2005) gestiegen.

In diesem Zeitraum von zwei Jahren hat Chavez seine Sozialreformen beschleunigt –Bildung, Gesundheitsfürsorge etc. – und auch den Abbau der exzessiven Vermögenskonzentration des Landes. Obwohl über 70% des Volkseinkommens in den Händen von 20% der Bevölkerung verbleiben, hat Chavez große ausländische Ölkonzerne gezwungen, wesentlich höhere Lizenzgebühren zu bezahlen und begonnen, Besitzer von unproduktiven Ländereien und industriellen Anlagen zu enteignen.

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