Chris Van Es

Anatomie d’une révolution ajournée

Le conflit qui perdure en Iran, entre les dirigeants et le peuple, répond en écho à l’entrechoquement de deux poussées contradictoires. Ces dernières années ont vu s’épanouir la libéralisation des comportements sociaux, et le pouvoir se défaire peu à peu de son statut de conservateur pragmatique pour revêtir celui de militant fondamentaliste. L’appel à rejeter le résultat de l'élection par les membres les plus importants du clergé n’est qu’une manifestation de plus de la réaction qui s’est produite à la fois chez les réformateurs et les conservateurs.

Trente ans après la révolution islamique, les Iraniens sont indéniablement moins religieux et plus ouverts. La mise en regard de deux enquêtes menées auprès de 2 500 adultes, en 2000 et en 2005, confirme cette tendance. Le pourcentage de ceux qui sont “très favorables” à la démocratie, comme mode de gouvernement souhaitable, est passé de 20 à 31%.

Sur une série de questions ayant trait à l’égalité des sexes – exercice des responsabilités politiques, accès à l’enseignement supérieur et devoir d’obéissance à l’époux – les chiffres confirment cette tendance. Ceux qui considèrent que l’amour doit présider au mariage passent de 49 à 69%, et ceux qui s’en remettent aux vœux des parents, de 41 à 24%. Et le pourcentage de ceux qui se proclamaient “Iranien avant tout,” plutôt que “islamistes avant tout,” est monté en flèche.

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