Anatomía de un colapso financiero

Nueva York – Actualmente existe un círculo vicioso en Estados Unidos y su alcance se podría ampliar a la economía global. La crisis financiera de ese país ha desatado una severa contracción del crédito que está empeorando la recesión estadounidense, lo que a su vez está generando mayores pérdidas en los mercados financieros – y socava así la economía en general. Ahora hay un riesgo grave de un colapso sistémico en los mercados financieros estadounidenses a medida que estallan las enormes burbujas del crédito y los activos.

 El problema ya no son solamente las hipotecas de alto riesgo, sino un sistema financiero “de alto riesgo”. En la recesión inmobiliaria –la peor en la historia de Estados Unidos y que empeora cada día—los precios de las casas caerán con el tiempo en más del 20% y millones de estadounidenses perderán sus hogares. Las liquidaciones y los impagos se están extendiendo de las hipotecas de alto riesgo a las de riesgo medio y bajo. De esa manera, las pérdidas totales de los instrumentos relacionados con las hipotecas –incluyendo derivados crediticios exóticos como las obligaciones de deuda avalada (CDO por sus siglas en inglés)—se elevarán a más de 400 mil millones de dólares.

Además, los bienes raíces comerciales están empezando a seguir la tendencia a la baja de las propiedades residenciales. Después de todo, ¿quién quiere construir oficinas, tiendas y centros comerciales en los pueblos fantasma del oeste estadounidense?

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