对金融危机的剖析

纽约-美国目前正经历着一个恶性循环,并且可能会影响到全球的经济。美国的经济危机所引发的严重的信贷紧缩加剧了美国经济的衰退,而越来越深重的衰退正在引发金融市场更大规模的损失,从而损害更广层面的经济。随着巨大的信贷和资产泡沫的破裂,美国金融市场正面临严重的系统性危机的风险。

现在的问题已经不单单是次级抵押贷款而更像是一场“次级”金融体系的危机。房地产市场的衰退是美国有史以来最严重的一次并且每天都在持续恶化,将最终导致房地产价格下跌超过20%,使数以百万计的美国人失去他们的住所。拖欠债务、违约和取消抵押品赎回权的现象正从次级抵押贷款蔓延到近优和优质抵押贷款上。与抵押贷款相关的投资工具包括像债务抵押证券(CDOs)这样的外来的信贷衍生产品的损失总计将超过4000亿美元。

此外,商业房地产也开始跟随居民房地产出现持续下跌。不管怎样,有谁愿意在散落在美国西部那些空旷、被遗废的城市建造办公楼、商店和购物中心呢?

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