تشريح الأزمة المالية

نيويورك ـ إن الولايات المتحدة تدور حالياً في دائرة مغلقة، وقد تمتد تأثيرات هذه الدائرة المغلقة لكي تطال الاقتصاد العالمي. فقد تسببت الأزمة المالية الأميركية في إحداث أزمة ائتمان حادة ساهمت في تفاقم حالة الركود في الولايات المتحدة، بينما يؤدي الركود المتزايد إلى تكبيد أسواق المال خسائر أشد ضخامة ـ الأمر الذي يهدد بالتالي بتقويض الاقتصاد بالكامل. فمع انهيار فقاعات الائتمان والأصول بات خطر الانهيار الشامل وراداً الآن في أسواق المال في الولايات المتحدة.

ولم تعد المشكلة تحيط بأزمة الرهن العقاري الثانوي فحسب، بل وبالنظام المالي "الثانوي" أيضاً. إذ أن ركود سوق الإسكان ـ الأسوأ في تاريخ الولايات المتحدة وما زال يتفاقم سوءاً بمرور كل يوم ـ لابد وأن يؤدي في النهاية إلى هبوط أسعار المساكن بنسبة تتجاوز 20%، مع خسارة الملايين من الأميركيين لمساكنهم. والآن بدأت حالات التخلف والعجز عن سداد الأقساط، فضلاً عن حالات حبس الرهن العقاري، في الانتشار من الرهن العقاري الثانوي إلى الرهن العقاري الأساسي. وعلى هذا فإن إجمالي الخسائر في الأدوات المالية المرتبطة بالرهن العقاري ـ بما في ذلك مشتقات الائتمان غير العادية مثل التزامات الدين المضمونة بسندات مالية ( CDOs ) ـ سوف يتجاوز الأربعمائة مليار دولار أميركي.

فضلاً عن ذلك، فقد بدأت العقارات التجارية في سلوك نفس المنحى الهابط الذي سلكته العقارات السكنية. فمن ذا الذي يريد بناء مكاتب، أو متاجر، أو مراكز تجارية في مدن الأشباح الخاوية المنتشرة في الغرب الأميركي؟

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