Anatomie d'un crash

Pourquoi le marché des nouvelles technologies s'est-il écroulé il y a un an et demi ? Que pouvons-nous déduire de l'effondrement du NASDAQ (et des autres indices boursiers de moindre importance liés à ces technologies) quant à l'avenir de la "nouvelle économie" ? Le moment est venu d'en tirer les leçons.

Du point de vue économique classique, la chute du NASDAQ a montré que la "nouvelle économie" n'était rien d'autre qu'un écran de fumée et un jeu de miroirs. Son succès traduisait l'euphorie qui se manifeste lors d'un boom de la Bourse, même s'il ne s'accompagne pas d'une modification réelle de l'économie. Mais il est probable que le NASDAQ s'est effondré pour une autre raison. Pour conserver leurs sources de profit, les sociétés qui occupaient les positions dominantes sur le marché des nouvelles technologies devaient dresser des barrières plus ou moins infranchissables contre l'apparition de nouveaux concurrents sur le marché. Or ces barrières sont devenues extrêmement difficiles à mettre en place.

Dans nombre de secteurs, la conséquence majeure de la "nouvelle économie" a été le renforcement de la concurrence et non pas l'augmentation des bénéfices dus à des économies d'échelle. Le crash des valeurs de la nouvelle technologie s'est produit quand les investisseurs ont réalisé que la "nouvelle économie" ne pouvait dans la plupart des cas leur apporter des revenus réguliers à partir d'une position établie sur le marché, mais qu'elle allait attiser la concurrence et réduire les marges bénéficiaires.

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