美国的战略盲目

马德里—由前美国情报承包商斯诺登的大揭秘掀起的对美国间谍行为的控诉目前进入了白热化。疑问重重——总统奥巴马知道了什么、何时知道的;窃听友邦领导人对话的合法性;跨大西洋关系的未来;甚至“盟友”这个词的含义。

但最近的风波与其他与美国相关的当前外交危机一样,反映了一个更加根本的问题:美国外交政策缺少战略眼光。在美国能够建立起包罗万象、目的导向的框架来与世界发生关系之前,难免要采取被动方式,我们在本月所看到的轩然大波将继续成为常态。

在四十多年的时间里,遏制苏联影响力的冷战政策一直是美国的战略框架。尽管在策略上一直存在争论,并且随着政府的变换而改变着,但总体方针一直没有变化,因为这受到了共和党和民主党的广泛支持。当然,总体国家安全战略并不能保证解决问题,甚至没有能够避免美国在越南和尼加拉瓜遭遇的灾难。尽管如此,事后看来,遏制给美国外交政策带来了如今所缺乏的秩序和组织。

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