Las ambiciones nucleares de Irán y su utilización

MADRID – El acuerdo alcanzado en la madrugada del 24 de noviembre entre Irán y el P5 +1 (los cinco miembros permanentes del Consejo de Seguridad de las Naciones Unidas, más Alemania) sobre el programa nuclear de Irán demuestra algo que es de vital importancia: el régimen de sanciones ha funcionado. El acuerdo interino es el primer compromiso que asume Irán respecto de su programa nuclear en más de una década y una victoria diplomática en un ámbito condicionado desde hace tiempo por la sombra de la intervención militar. Dicho lo anterior, la euforia de algunas de las reacciones que estamos presenciando está fuera de lugar.

Más allá de las ambigüedades y limitaciones del acuerdo que cubre los próximos seis meses, las negociaciones han puesto al descubierto la realidad del programa de armas nucleares de Irán, así como que éstas siguen siendo un símbolo de estatus geoestratégico. De ambas consideraciones se deduce la dificultad de alcanzar un acuerdo global y la posibilidad de que un esfuerzo internacional se acabe materializando en una serie de acuerdos de mínimos encaminados a retrasar la adquisición del arma nuclear por parte de Irán, en lugar de eliminar la amenaza por completo.

Bajo los titulares que califican acuerdo alcanzado en Ginebra de histórico encontramos un pacto limitado y ambiguo. El comunicado conjunto emitido por la Alta Representante de la UE, Catherine Ashton, y el Ministro de Asuntos Exteriores iraní, Javad Zarif, se refiere al acuerdo como “plan conjunto de acción” que establece “un proyecto hacia una solución integral a largo plazo"; y argumenta que se trata de un  primer paso que sienta las condiciones y el tiempo necesarios para lograr una solución integral". Se trata, en realidad, de crear medidas de confianza.  De hecho, las obligaciones a que hace referencia el acuerdo provisional, están planteadas en términos de "medidas voluntarias".

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