核野心的用处

马德里——11月24日凌晨,伊朗和P5+1集团(即联合国安理会5个常任理事国加上德国)就伊朗核计划达成协议证明了一个极其重要的问题:制裁起作用了。临时协议是10余年来伊朗首次就核计划做出妥协,也是在军事干预阴霾长期笼罩领域取得的外交胜利。但有人兴高采烈却是个错误。

抛开6个月协议的模糊和局限性不谈,此次谈判已清楚地暴露了伊朗的核武器计划,说得更宽泛点,伊朗把核武器视作地缘战略地位的象征。这表明了达成全面协议难度有多大,告诫我们国际努力或许只能订立一系列推迟伊朗核武器计划的小协议,而不可能彻底消除伊朗的核威胁。

历史性协议的头条新闻掩盖了有限和模糊的规定。欧盟高级代表凯瑟琳·阿什顿和伊朗外长贾瓦德·扎里夫发表联合声明指出该协议是“明确长期全面解决方法”的“联合行动计划”。虽然向“实现全面解决的时点和环境”迈出了第一步,但临时协议实际主要是建立信任的举措。事实上,协议用“自愿措施”来形容规定的义务。

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