Margaret Scott

Nouvelle Frontière et vieux problèmes

VARSOVIE – Si le putsch contre Mikhail Gorbachef avait échoué en août 1991, les émeutes et décès survenus il y a peu dans la province de Xinjiang auraient pu se produire en Russie. Au lieu d'actes de répression à Urumqi, la capitale de Xinjiang, nous entendrions parler de centaines de morts dans les rues d’Almaty et les éditorialistes feraient un rapprochement avec la sanglante répression des manifestations indépendantistes à Lviv en Ukraine l'an dernier.

Comme pour la Chine à l’heure actuelle, la communauté internationale aurait faiblement condamné les actes et spéculerait à propos d'éventuels liens entre les militants Kazakhes et des groupes d’exilés ou des islamistes radicaux. Les spécialistes nous rappelleraient que le Kazakhstan n’a jamais été un pays et que l’on peut douter des revendications ukrainiennes pour l’indépendance d’un point de vue historique. Remplacez Kazakhstan par Xingjiang et Ukraine par Tibet et vous voyez le tableau.

Ce putsch s’est fort heureusement terminé comme une farce. Le régime soviétique en déclin était incapable d’écraser le mouvement démocratique russe qui allait croissant, ce que Vladimir Poutine a pu faire dix ans plus tard. Or, le choix du massacre de Tienanmen en 1989 place les dirigeants communistes chinois et leur pays sur une voie bien différente de celle que la Russie a emprunté.

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