关于欧佩克的尴尬事实

达拉斯——

预测长期石油需求和供应的3大机构——国际能源组织、石油输出国组织(欧佩克)、美国能源信息局,以及其他石油公司和咨询公司相信,欧佩克将填补预测的全球石油需求和非欧佩克石油供应的差额。但它们错了,欧佩克的产量将不能达到外界对它的供应预测量,因为这些预测是建立在有缺陷且过时的预测模型基础上的。

在延伸至本世纪30年代的预测中,上述的3大机构一致相信世界能源需求将会攀升,大多数增加的需求来自发展中国家,化石燃料仍将处于支配地位。它们还认为,由于非欧佩克供应国的石油资源下降、开发成本上涨,世界对欧佩克成员国的石油依赖将会上升。但是世界石油市场模型的一个重大缺陷使这些预测变得不现实,就像预测明天人类就能登陆火星一样。

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