Nivelando el campo de juego afgano

NUEVA YORK – La situación política y de seguridad de Afganistán sigue plagada de incertidumbre, como consecuencia del retiro de las tropas de combate de Estados Unidos y la OTAN, la inminente elección presidencial y las negociaciones de paz estancadas con los talibán. El gobierno reconoce que una inseguridad económica continua no hará más que exacerbar esta situación peligrosa y ha anunciado un nuevo paquete de incentivos económicos que apuntan a atraer inversión extranjera directa.

El paquete incluye el suministro de tierras a empresarios industriales a precios considerablemente reducidos, exenciones impositivas de hasta siete años para los propietarios de las fábricas y préstamos a baja tasa de interés de hasta diez años para los agricultores. Estos incentivos apuntan a los inversores extranjeros y a la élite local, con el objetivo de frenar o hasta revertir la fuga de capitales. Pero las nuevas medidas en definitiva responden a más de lo mismo: una estrategia política fragmentada que resultará inapropiada para solucionar los problemas económicos fundamentales de Afganistán.

En las primeras etapas de la transición de posguerra, la IED aumentó rápidamente, pasando del 1,2% del PBI en 2002 a un pico del 4,3% del PBI en 2005. La mayoría de estos ingresos de capital estaban destinados a los sectores de la construcción y de servicios -los principales motores del crecimiento del PBI- y apuntaban a satisfacer la demanda internacional, tanto civil como militar.

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