Пакт о внешней стабильности для Европы

БЕРЛИН. Текущий экономический кризис выявил две фундаментальные проблемы в системе Европейского валютного союза (ЕВС). Первая касается устойчивости государственных финансов в некоторых государствах-членах зоны евро. Вторая, а именно неэффективное согласование макроэкономической политики, привела к различиям в международной конкурентоспособности членов зоны евро, угрожая самому существованию евро.

Страны, чьи государственные финансы еще год назад казались чрезвычайно крепкими, попали под мощное налогово-бюджетное давление. Прогнозируется, что государственный долг Ирландии вырастет к 2010 г. почти до 80% ВВП, хотя лишь год назад Европейская Комиссия предсказывала, что её государственный долг будет ниже 30% ВВП. Также, хотя предсказывалось, что Испания уменьшит свой долг, теперь соотношение её долга к ВВП, вероятно, удвоится, если считать с 2007 г. по 2010 г., и составит более 60%.

Механизмы налогово-бюджетного контроля ЕС не смогли предсказать данных событий, т.к. они пренебрегают важнейшей переменной: динамикой долгов частного сектора. Учитывая высокую экономическую стоимость банковского кризиса, правительства склонны брать на себя обязательства своих финансовых секторов в случае возникновения кризиса, как недавно и произошло в Великобритании и Ирландии, а также во время финансовых кризисов в Латинской Америке и Азии в 1990-х гг. То же самое, вероятно, справедливо и в случае возникновения угрозы неплатёжеспособности ключевых секторов бизнеса. Таким образом, страна с крепкими государственными финансами может практически в одночасье стать налогово-бюджетным инвалидом.

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