A quand un tremblement de terre dans la politique chinoise ?

PEKIN – Maintenant que l'onde de choc de l'énorme tremblement de terre du Sichuan s'est dissipée, le temps est venu de se demander s'il a ébranlé – et de quelle manière – le système politique chinois. La secousse a-t-elle engendré un nouvel élan politique en faveur des réformes ?

Un phénomène de ce genre a déjà eu lieu. Le tremblement de terre dévastateur de Tangshan en 2007 a été suivi peu après de changements politiques spectaculaires (la chute de la "Bande des quatre" et la consolidation de la position de Deng Xiaoping comme leader suprême).

Etant donné le contraste entre la compassion affichée par le Premier ministre Wen Jiabao et le médiocre bilan politique du président Hu Jintao, une partie de l'opinion a cru que le tremblement de terre avait modifié l'équilibre des forces au sommet du Parti communiste au profit des éléments les plus libéraux représentés par Wen. Mais ce point de vue est naïf.

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