Um Abismo de Outono?

BERLIM - Nos próximos meses, várias crises económicas e políticas regionais graves poderão culminar num mega ponto de viragem, estimulando uma enorme instabilidade a nível global. Ao longo do Verão, aumentou a probabilidade de uma queda perigosa.

Os tambores de guerra soam cada vez mais alto no Médio Oriente. Ninguém pode prever em que direcção o presidente islâmico sunita do Egipto e a maioria parlamentar irão conduzir o país. Mas uma coisa é certa: os islâmicos sunitas estão a alterar de forma determinante a política da região. Esta reorientação regional não tem de ser necessariamente antiocidental, mas sê-lo-á certamente caso Israel e/ou os Estados Unidos lancem um ataque militar ao Irão.

Entretanto, a Síria está a ser assolada por uma guerra civil, acompanhada por uma catástrofe humanitária. De facto, o regime do presidente Bashar al-Assad não irá sobreviver, mas está determinado em lutar até ao fim. A balcanização da Síria entre os diversos grupos étnicos e religiosos do país é um resultado claramente previsível. Na verdade, já não se pode excluir um tipo de situação idêntica à da Bósnia, uma vez que que a probabilidade do governo sírio perder o controlo sobre as suas armas químicas representa uma ameaça imediata de intervenção militar por parte da Turquia, de Israel ou dos EUA.

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