在秋天坠入深渊?

发自柏林——在未来这几个月,几场严重的区域性经济和政治危机将汇集成一个巨大的分水岭,激起一场全球性的剧变。从今夏的情况看来,一个危机重重的秋天正日益逼近。

在中东地区,战鼓擂得比以往任何时候都要响亮。没有人能预测埃及的逊尼派伊斯兰总统和议会多数派将带领该国走向何方。但有一点是明确的:逊尼派伊斯兰主义者正在决定性地改变着该地区的政治面貌。这场区域性战略的重新调整并不一定是反西方的,然而一旦以色列或美国对伊朗发起军事进攻,那么后果就必将如此。

与此同时,内战和人道主义灾难正蹂躏着叙利亚。毫无疑问,总统巴沙尔·阿萨德(Bashar al-Assad)的政权必将垮台,却决心顽抗到底。不同种族和宗教群体将叙利亚巴尔干化也将是一个可以清晰预见的结果。事实上一个类似当年波斯尼亚问题的解决方案必须被考虑在内,而一旦叙利亚政府丧失对其化学武器的控制权,就将马上遭遇土耳其、以色列或者美国的军事干预威胁。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/tJf2FO5/zh;
  1. An employee works at a chemical fiber weaving company VCG/Getty Images

    China in the Lead?

    For four decades, China has achieved unprecedented economic growth under a centralized, authoritarian political system, far outpacing growth in the Western liberal democracies. So, is Chinese President Xi Jinping right to double down on authoritarianism, and is the “China model” truly a viable rival to Western-style democratic capitalism?

  2. The assembly line at Ford Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

    Whither the Multilateral Trading System?

    The global economy today is dominated by three major players – China, the EU, and the US – with roughly equal trading volumes and limited incentive to fight for the rules-based global trading system. With cooperation unlikely, the world should prepare itself for the erosion of the World Trade Organization.

  3. Donald Trump Saul Loeb/Getty Images

    The Globalization of Our Discontent

    Globalization, which was supposed to benefit developed and developing countries alike, is now reviled almost everywhere, as the political backlash in Europe and the US has shown. The challenge is to minimize the risk that the backlash will intensify, and that starts by understanding – and avoiding – past mistakes.

  4. A general view of the Corn Market in the City of Manchester Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

    A Better British Story

    Despite all of the doom and gloom over the United Kingdom's impending withdrawal from the European Union, key manufacturing indicators are at their highest levels in four years, and the mood for investment may be improving. While parts of the UK are certainly weakening economically, others may finally be overcoming longstanding challenges.

  5. UK supermarket Waring Abbott/Getty Images

    The UK’s Multilateral Trade Future

    With Brexit looming, the UK has no choice but to redesign its future trading relationships. As a major producer of sophisticated components, its long-term trade strategy should focus on gaining deep and unfettered access to integrated cross-border supply chains – and that means adopting a multilateral approach.

  6. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now