¿Una primavera árabe?

PARÍS - ¿Es Túnez la primera ficha del dominó autoritario árabe en caer? ¿O se trata de un caso excepcional que no se debe considerar un precedente ni para el mundo árabe en general ni para el Magreb en particular? Los dictadores de la región han intentado descartar la “Revolución del Jazmín”, pero la chispa que saltó en Túnez podría propagarse –tal vez en cuestión de meses o años– a todo el mundo árabe.

De hecho, el muro de miedo se ha desmoronado, el pueblo ha hablado y podría estar próxima una “primavera árabe”. El mensaje procedente de Túnez, al menos hasta ahora, es claro: “Atención, regimenes autoritarios y corruptos, si no aplicáis reformas rápidas y profundas, vuestros días están contados”. El mayor peligro es el de que la Revolución del Jazmín siga el camino del levantamiento anticomunista de Rumania de hace veinte años y los subordinados del régimen expulsen a sus jefes para mantenerse en el poder.

Pero la mejor analogía para el Túnez de hoy es la de España en los años que precedieron y siguieron a la muerte de Francisco Franco. Al abrirse al mundo mediante el turismo y con su insistencia en la educación y los derechos de las mujeres, el régimen de Ben Ali creó algo excepcional en Oriente Medio: una pujante clase media, pero el régimen, como la dictadura de Franco, no trató a los miembros de la nueva clase media como a adultos, por lo que fomentó una frustración generalizada.

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