Une alternative à l'invasion de l'Irak ?

Maintenant que les équipes d'inspection de l'ONU se trouvent en Irak et que la date limite du 8 décembre, date à laquelle l'Irak doit déclarer toutes ses armes de production en série et les équipements pour les produire, approche, le monde doit compter avec une question difficile : que faire si Saddam Hussein n'obéit pas à la résolution du Conseil de sécurité sur ses armes de destruction massive ? Il est possible que le président irakien s'y conforme, mais le Conseil a promis qu'il appliquerait des " conséquences sérieuses " dans le cas contraire. Que seront ces conséquences ? Nous savons d'expérience que ni les pressions politiques ni les sanctions économiques ne nuisent suffisamment à Saddam. Seule une action militaire sera efficace.

Mais la seule option militaire qui s'offre à nous jusqu'à présent consiste en une invasion pour changer le régime politique du pays, c'est-à-dire une guerre totale. Débuter une guerre est toujours une affaire grave et ses effets ne sont jamais clairement prévisibles. La situation qui nous préoccupe comporte cinq domaines majeurs d'incertitude et de risque.

Tout d'abord, il se peut que le combat en lui-même ne soit pas la partie de plaisir que préconisent certains. Churchill a écrit : " Ne supposez jamais, jamais, qu'une guerre sera paisible et facile ". Les forces irakiennes conditionnées et un régime complice à tous les niveaux des crimes de Saddam combattraient non pour la conquête, comme dans la Guerre du Golfe de 1991, mais pour défendre leur patrie. Se dresse alors le spectre du combat de rue dans Bagdad, de l'utilisation désespérée d'armes biologiques ou chimiques, d'une attaque pour entrer en Israël, de nombreux morts militaires et civils et la destruction d'une société ravagée.

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