Paul Lachine

预期消退的年代?

剑桥——

随着美国和欧洲经济继续艰难行进,人们越来越担心它们正面临日本曾经历过的“失去的十年”(lost decade)。不幸的是,相关讨论过多地关注政府通过预算赤字与货币政策来刺激需求的措施。这些问题虽然具有短期的重要性,但正如所有经济学家一致认为的,经济长期增长主要取决于生产力的提高。

毫无疑问,日本1992年遭遇的金融大危机是一次重击,日本至今尚未恢复。与此同时,它当前与美国和欧洲的相似之处也令人不安。在未来很长时间内,美国与欧洲似乎将面临缓慢的信贷增长,原因是它们采取了必要的金融监管加强措施,以及它们的经济过度杠杆化这一事实。在经济愈合过程中,绝无捷径可走。

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