Случайное исцеление для Ирака

Врачи используют слово "кризис", чтобы описать переломный момент, после которого пациент или начинает выздоравливать, или умирает. Иракский пациент президента Джорджа В. Буша в настоящее время, кажется, подошел к этому моменту. Большинство комментаторов, кажется, думают, что последний рецепт Буша – волна 20000 дополнительных войск для подавления ополчения в Багдаде – в лучшем случае просто отсрочит неизбежное крушение его мечты о демократическом Ираке. И все же факторы, которые не подконтрольны Бушу и не являются его заслугой (по крайней мере, не умышленно), как раз могут спасти Ирак от гибели.

Один ключевой фактор состоит в том, что впервые с тех пор, как Соединенные Штаты и Великобритания вторглись в Ирак, лидеры арабских суннитов поддерживают военный план США в отношении этой страны. Эти суннитские лидеры живут в презренном страхе геополитической катастрофы, к которой приведет любой распад политической власти в Багдаде, полагая, что за этим непременно последует всеобщая гражданская война – война, которая не будет уважать международные границы.

Конечно, Америка поддерживала суннитских лидеров в их вере. Недавний тур госсекретаря Кондолиззы Райс по столицам ближневосточных государств помог распространить слух в Египет, Иорданию, Саудовскую Аравию и страны Персидского залива о том, что любая неудача США и внезапный вывод войск, несомненно, дестабилизирует их страны. Учитывая хрупкую власть, которую имеют эти лидеры над своими обществами, предупреждения Америки были приняты близко к сердцу.

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