意外的伊拉克药方

医生经常用“危象”一词来描述某一时段,在这一时段中,病人要么开始康复,要么死亡。布什总统的伊拉克病人现在看起来已经达到了这一点。大多数评论家似乎认为,布什的最新药方,也就是大幅增兵20000人来镇压巴格达的民兵将最多只是推迟建立民主的伊拉克的梦想不可避免的灭亡。但是,超出布什控制范围、并且不是他所为(至少不是有意的)的因素也许就会从末日中挽救伊拉克。

其中一个关键因素是,自从美国和英国入侵伊拉克以来,阿拉伯逊尼派领导人第一次支持美国在伊拉克的军事计划。这些逊尼派领导人生活在悲惨的恐惧之中,担心巴格达政权的解体所会带来的地缘政治地震。他们相信,那将会不可避免地引发全面内战,而这一内战将不会尊重国际边界线。

当然,美国一直在鼓励逊尼派领导人相信这一观点。国务卿莱斯最近访问中东各国首都,向埃及、约旦、沙特以及海湾国家传话说,美国一旦失败并且匆忙撤兵肯定将会破坏它们国家的稳定。鉴于这些领导人对其社会控制微弱,美国的警告得到了重视。

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