The Gulf oil exporters, supported by strong oil revenues and spurred by revolutions in neighboring countries, have lately ramped up public spending. But sound fiscal management is a particularly delicate problem in resource-rich countries, and must be informed by key considerations that these countries are ignoring.
ABU DHABI – Supported by strong oil revenues and spurred by unrest in neighboring countries, the Gulf oil exporters – especially Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, and Bahrain, which form the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) – have lately ramped up public social and investment spending. The business-intelligence publication MEED estimates that the value of projects that are planned or underway is nearing $2.46 trillion – more than 150% of these countries’ combined GDP (up from 128% a year ago).
Given this, it is not surprising that the International Monetary Fund sounded cautious in its latest economic outlook for the Middle East, urging the governments of the oil-exporting countries to rein in hard-to-reverse expenditures and pursue high-quality capital investments and social programs. After all, fiscal management is a particularly delicate problem in resource-rich countries, with a few key considerations determining success.
First, policymakers must aim for “intergenerational equity.” They cannot simply do what is best for their country today; they must also consider the implications of their choices – how much oil wealth they consume, how much to invest in human and physical capital, and how much to save – for future generations.
ABU DHABI – Supported by strong oil revenues and spurred by unrest in neighboring countries, the Gulf oil exporters – especially Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, and Bahrain, which form the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) – have lately ramped up public social and investment spending. The business-intelligence publication MEED estimates that the value of projects that are planned or underway is nearing $2.46 trillion – more than 150% of these countries’ combined GDP (up from 128% a year ago).
Given this, it is not surprising that the International Monetary Fund sounded cautious in its latest economic outlook for the Middle East, urging the governments of the oil-exporting countries to rein in hard-to-reverse expenditures and pursue high-quality capital investments and social programs. After all, fiscal management is a particularly delicate problem in resource-rich countries, with a few key considerations determining success.
First, policymakers must aim for “intergenerational equity.” They cannot simply do what is best for their country today; they must also consider the implications of their choices – how much oil wealth they consume, how much to invest in human and physical capital, and how much to save – for future generations.