Las retiradas americanas

LOS ÁNGELES – Cuando el próximo gobierno de Barack Obama debata el ritmo y las  consecuencias de la retirada del Iraq, hará bien en examinar las repercusiones estratégicas de otras salidas americanas en los decenios finales del siglo XX. Aunque los compromisos americanos con el Líbano, Somalia, el Vietnam y Camboya  difirieron en gran medida, la Historia revela que, pese a los inmediatos costos para el prestigio de los Estados Unidos, la retirada redundó en última instancia en provecho de los Estados Unidos.

En todos esos casos, una relativa estabilidad regional surgió después de una retirada militar americana, si bien al precio de una importante pérdida de vidas. Los antiguos adversarios de los Estados Unidos se dedicaron a consolidar o compartir el poder o sufrieron una derrota interna o se enfrentaron con los Estados vecinos. En última instancia, prevalecieron los intereses vitales de los Estados Unidos. En la actualidad todo indica que se puede repetir esa tónica cuando los Estados Unidos abandonen Mesopotamia y dejen a los iraquíes decidir su propia suerte.

De las cuatro retiradas, se puede decir que la intervención americana en el Líbano en el período 1982-1984 constituye el paralelismo más próximo al Iraq actual. En los enfrentamientos del Líbano, país desgarrado por la violencia sectaria  a partir de 1975, participaba un número mayor de opositores mutuos que en el Iraq actual.

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