Amerikas Rückzüge

Los Angeles: Bei ihren Diskussionen über Tempo und Folgen eines Rückzugs aus dem Irak täte Barack Obamas kommende Regierung gut daran, die strategischen Auswirkungen anderer Fälle eines amerikanischen Abzugs in den letzten Jahrzehnten des 20. Jahrhunderts zu untersuchen. Obwohl sich die amerikanischen Engagements im Libanon, in Somalia, Vietnam, und Kambodscha deutlich unterschieden, zeigt die Geschichte, dass der Rückzug aus diesen Ländern – obwohl er dem Ruf der USA unmittelbar Schaden zufügte – ihnen letztendlich Vorteile brachte.

In all diesen Fällen kam es nach dem Abzug amerikanischer Truppen zu so etwas wie regionaler Stabilität, wenn auch auf Kosten erheblicher Verluste an Menschenleben. Amerikas ehemalige Gegner waren in der Folge entweder damit beschäftigt, ihre Macht zu konsolidieren oder eine Machtbeteiligung zu erreichen, erlitten innenpolitische Niederlagen oder wandten sich gegen benachbarte Staaten. Letztlich setzten sich Amerikas vitale Interessen durch. Und es sieht so aus, als ob sich dieses Muster, wenn die USA Mesopotamien verlassen und es den Irakern überlassen, ihr Schicksal selbst in die Hand zu nehmen, wiederholen lässt.

Von den vier Rückzügen weist die amerikanische Intervention im Libanon 1982-1984 wohl die engsten Parallelen zum heutigen Irak auf. Im Libanon – einem seit 1975 von religiös motivierter Gewalt zerrissenen Land – maß eine im Vergleich zum heutigen Irak sogar noch komplexere Gruppe streitender Parteien ihre Kräfte.

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