Retraites américaines

Los Angeles – Le nouveau gouvernement de Barack Obama s’interroge actuellement sur le rythme et sur les conséquences du retrait d'Irak, mais il ferait bien d’examiner également l'impact stratégique des autres retraits américains survenus durant les dernières décennies du XXe siècle. Même si les désengagements américains au Liban, en Somalie, au Vietnam et au Cambodge diffèrent considérablement, l'histoire révèle que malgré leurs conséquences négatives immédiates sur la réputation des États-Unis, ils sont finalement tout à leur honneur.

Dans tous les cas cités précédemment, le semblant de stabilité régionale est apparu après le retrait militaire américain, quoiqu’au prix de nombreuses pertes humaines. Par la suite, les anciens adversaires des Américains étaient préoccupés par la consolidation et le partage de pouvoir, subissaient un échec national ou étaient confrontés à leurs voisins. Au bout du compte, les intérêts vitaux de l'Amérique prédominaient. Aujourd'hui, tout porte à croire que ce schéma se répétera lorsque les États‑Unis quitteront la Mésopotamie et laisseront les Irakiens décider de leur propre sort.

De ces quatre retraits, l'intervention américaine au Liban de 1982-1984 est sans doute celle qui ressemble le plus à celle d’aujourd’hui, en Irak. Déchiré par la violence sectaire depuis 1975, le Liban montait les uns contre les autres des adversaires de nature encore plus complexe que ceux d’Irak.

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