Americké ústupy

LOS ANGELES – V době, kdy nastupující administrativa Baracka Obamy debatuje o tempu a důsledcích stahování z Iráku, by nebylo od věci, kdyby prostudovala strategický dopad jiných amerických ústupů v posledních desetiletích 20. století. Třebaže se americká angažmá v Libanonu, Somálsku, Vietnamu a Kambodži diametrálně lišila, dějiny ukazují, že navzdory bezprostředním dopadům na americkou reputaci vyzněly tyto odchody nakonec ve prospěch USA.

Ve všech zmíněných případech nastala po americkém vojenském stažení jakási regionální stabilita, byť se tak stalo za cenu značných ztrát na životech. Někdejší američtí protivníci se buďto začali věnovat upevňování či dělbě moci, utrpěli domácí porážku, anebo konfrontovali sousední státy. Klíčové zájmy Ameriky nakonec zvítězily. Fakta dnes nasvědčují tomu, že tento model lze zopakovat, jakmile Spojené státy odejdou z Mezopotámie a ponechají na Iráčanech, aby o svém osudu rozhodovali sami.

Z výše uvedených čtyř případů stažení představuje nejvěrnější paralelu k dnešnímu Iráku pravděpodobně americká intervence v Libanonu v letech 1982-1984. Od roku 1975 drásalo tuto zemi sektářské násilí a proti sobě nakonec stály ještě spletitější šiky znesvářených stran, než je tomu v dnešním Iráku.

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