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新通胀鹰派都在想什么？

发自伯克利—早在1992年，时任世界银行首席经济学家的劳伦斯·H·萨默斯（Lawrence H. Summers）和我就曾警告过将美联储年度通胀目标从4%下调到2%可能引发重大问题。这不仅是因为4%的目标并未引发任何不满，还因为2%的指标会增加美联储利率政策触及零下限的风险。

没人理会我们的反对意见。美联储主席艾伦·格林斯潘（Alan Greenspan）将通胀目标降到了2%，而自那以后美国人就一直在为此付出代价。我一直认为如果我们能在任一商业周期末段实现充分就业后将联邦基金利率提升到5%并借此重整资产市场的话，许多经济问题都将不复存在。

有三种方法可以达到这一目的。一个是将通胀目标提高到美联储前主席保罗·沃尔克（Paul Volcker）任期内普遍设定的4%范围；另一个是提振需求，令周期末段的5%联邦基金利率仍能与投资热潮相匹配；第三个选项是向市场投入海量安全国债资产，压低国债安全资产价格溢价，进而使周期末段联邦基金利率上升。

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