القوة الأمريكية وحملة 2004 الانتخابية

اشتعل أوار الحملة الانتخابية الرئاسية في أميركا، ومعها احتدم النقاش حول قوة أميركا. منذ عام مضى، بعد النصر في الحرب الخاطفة التي دامت أربعة أسابيع في العراق، ظن كثيرون أن القضية قد أغلقت. لكن المصاعب اللاحقة التي برزت في العراق ـ وعلى مستوى العلاقات الخارجية لأميركا بشكل أكثر عموماً ـ أدت إلى تربع ذلك الموضوع على قمة اهتمامات الحملة الانتخابية.

من الصعب أن نتذكر، ولكن منذ ما يزيد بقليل على عقد من الزمان، فإن الجهات ذات الحكمة التقليدية آنذاك ـ داخل وخارج الولايات المتحدة ـ اعتبرت أن أميركا قد وصلت إلى مرحلة الأفول والانحدار. في عام 1992 قال الفائز في انتخابات نيو هامبشاير التمهيدية: "لقد انتهت الحرب الباردة، واليابان هي التي خرجت منتصرة". وحين نشرت كتابي "الزعامة المحتومة" في عام 1990، تنبأت بازدياد نهوض القوة الأمريكية. لكنني اليوم أجد أنه من الأهمية بمكان أن نرتاب في الحكمة التقليدية الجديدة والتي تقول إن أميركا لا تقهر، وإن "الزعامة الأحادية الجديدة" لابد وأن توجه السياسة الخارجية للولايات المتحدة.

بعد انهيار الاتحاد السوفييتي انبرى بعض المحللين إلى وصف العالم بأنه أصبح أحادي القطبية، ولم ير أولئك المحللون سوى القليل من القيود التي قد تكبح جماح القوة الأمريكية. لكن هذا تحليل مضلل. فالقوة في عصر عولمة المعلومات يتم توزيعها بين الدول على نمط يشبه مباراة شطرنج معقدة ذات أبعاد ثلاثية.

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