伊拉克之后的美国对外政策

伊拉克之后又会是什么?如果布什总统的部队“急流”不能交出一份可以称作“胜利”的答卷,那么美国可以从中为其未来的对外政策吸取什么样的教训呢?它会转为内向,正如30年前兵败越南之后那样么?它会从推动民主转向为一种对自身利益的狭隘现实主义观吗?即便在华盛顿的讨论仍聚焦伊拉克的情况下,一些有思想的外交观察家已经开始提出这些长期性的问题了。

分析家和专家们对美国在世界上的地位往往有错误的认识。例如,20年前,一般的公众观点认为美国正在衰落。10年后,随着冷战结束,新的公众观点又认为世界上只有美国一个超级霸权。一些新保守派专家认定美国是如此强大,以至于它可以按自己的意志决策,而其它国家不得不遵从。Charles Krauthammer高调地将这种观点称为“新单边主义”。它甚至在2001年“9.11”袭击发生之前都一直对布什政府产生着重要的影响。

但新单边主义是基于对世界政治实力特点的深刻误解。实力是取得需要的结果的能力。通过所拥有的资源能否获得这样的结果还依赖于环境。例如,如果战争在沙漠中进行,那么一支庞大的现代化坦克部队就是一种强大的资源。但如果战事在沼泽地区进行则不然—正如美国在越南所发现的那样。过去,人们一般认为军事实力主导着绝大多数问题,但在当今的世界,实力的大环境千差万别。

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